A new scientific study warns that sea levels could rise by up to two meters before 2100, forcing the displacement of hundreds of millions of people, and causing considerable damage to the habitability of the planet. In this scenario, the world would lose 1.79 million square meters of land area, the equivalent of the size of Libya. Affected cities would include global cities such as London, New York and Shanghai, with much land lost in major agri-food production areas such as the Nile Delta.
Until now, in the scientific community it was considered that the sea level would rise by a maximum of one meter (between 52 cm and 98 cm) by the end of the 21st century, if CO2 emissions are not considerably reduced . The new study, published by the journal Proceedings of the US Academy of Sciences, considers that previous estimates are too conservative. The study authors, who include ice scientists, believe that sea levels may rise to 62 and 238 cm before 2100 if CO2 emissions continue on the current trajectory. This would occur in a scenario of a global temperature rise of 5ºC, one of the worst global warming scenarios contemplated.
Up to a global temperature rise of 2ºC, the sea level will rise mainly due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheets, but with a temperature increase of more than 2ºC, the Antarctic ice sheets would come into play , much larger. The authors consider that the probability that the worst scenario of a 5ºC rise in temperatures materializing is 5%, a probability that is too high to not take decisive action. “If we were told that when crossing a street we have a 1 in 20 chance of dying, we would not cross.”